Grafikleri almad\u0131m, \u00fc\u015fendim. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki linke t\u0131klay\u0131n l\u00fctfen.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fte referandum sonras\u0131 ilk anket
\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin idare \u015feklini parlamenter sistemden \u201cCumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet sistemi\u201d ad\u0131 verilen icrac\u0131 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k sistemine de\u011fi\u015ftiren 16 Nisan referandumundan sonra yap\u0131lan ilk anket \u00e7ok \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar veriyor.
\nAnket Fransa merkezli uluslararas\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma kurulu\u015fu IPSOS taraf\u0131ndan CNN T\u00fcrk i\u00e7in 17 Nisan g\u00fcn\u00fc 81 ilde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki se\u00e7men n\u00fcfusunu temsil eden 1501 ki\u015fiyle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yoluyla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmi\u015f.
\nCNN T\u00fcrk taraf\u0131ndan 19 Nisan gecesi yay\u0131nlanan anketin en dikkat \u00e7ekici sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan birisi MHP se\u00e7meninin b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi \u00fczerine olan\u0131.
\nBuna g\u00f6re, 1 Kas\u0131m 2015 se\u00e7imlerinde MHP\u2019ye oy vermi\u015f se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 73\u2019\u00fc 16 Nisan\u2019da parti lideri Devlet Bah\u00e7eli\u2019nin \u201cEvet\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n \u201cHay\u0131r\u201d oyu verdi. Bu oran, 5 b\u00fcy\u00fck ilde, yani \u0130stanbul, Ankara, \u0130zmir, Adana ve Bursa ortalamas\u0131nda y\u00fczde 80\u2019i buluyor.
\n\u201cHay\u0131r\u201d kampanyas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7eken CHP\u2019de \u201cEvet\u201d veren se\u00e7men oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 5, HDP\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 9 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.
\nAnayasa de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yapan AK Parti se\u00e7meninin y\u00fczde 10\u2019u ise \u201cHay\u0131r\u201d oyu verdi IPSOS \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re.
\nCumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n kampanya boyunca en \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde durdu\u011fu konulardan birisi da 18 ya\u015fa se\u00e7ilme hakk\u0131 verilmesi olmu\u015ftu. IPSOS \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ilk kez oy veren se\u00e7menlerin y\u00fczde 58\u2019inin \u201cHay\u0131r\u201d oyu verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu oran referandumda kullan\u0131lan y\u00fczde 48,6 oran\u0131ndaki \u201cHay\u0131r\u201d oran\u0131ndan neredeyse 10 puan daha fazla.
\nReferandum oy say\u0131m\u0131 s\u00fcrerken H\u00fcrriyet Ankara Temsilcisi Hande F\u0131rat, AK Parti Genel Merkezindeki ilk de\u011ferlendirmeleri aktar\u0131rken, parti y\u00f6neticilerinin \u201ckentlile\u015fme ve e\u011fitim d\u00fczeyi artt\u0131k\u00e7a \u201cHay\u0131r\u201d oylar\u0131n\u0131n da artt\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d tespiti yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bundan ders \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini bildirmi\u015fti.
\nIPSOS anketi AK Parti y\u00f6netimindeki bu ilk tespiti do\u011fruluyor ve say\u0131ya d\u00f6k\u00fcyor.
\nAnket sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re, il ve il\u00e7e merkezlerinde \u201chay\u0131r\u201d oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 51\u2019e ula\u015f\u0131yor; \u201cEvet\u201d y\u00fczde 48\u2019de kal\u0131yor.
\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131n belde ve k\u00f6ylerde \u201cEvet\u201d oran\u0131, referandumda \u00e7\u0131kan y\u00fczde 51,4\u2019\u00fcn 10 puandan fazla \u00fczerinde; y\u00fczde 62; belde ve k\u00f6ylerde \u201cHay\u0131r\u201d oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 38\u2019de kal\u0131yor.
\nAyn\u0131 \u015fekilde ilkokul mezunu ya da e\u011fitimsiz se\u00e7men aras\u0131nda \u201cEvet\u201d oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 70\u2019e y\u00fckseliyor; ankete g\u00f6re \u201cEvet\u201d oylar\u0131n\u0131n en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu dilim bu.
\n\u0130lkokul d\u00fczeyinde y\u00fczde 70 olan \u201cEvet\u201d oran\u0131 ortaokul d\u00fczeyinde y\u00fczde 57\u2019ye, lise d\u00fczeyinde y\u00fczde 42\u2019ye, \u00fcniversite d\u00fczeyinde ise y\u00fczde 39\u2019a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.
\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131n \u0130lkokul d\u00fczeyinde y\u00fczde 30 olan \u201cHay\u0131r\u201d oran\u0131, Ortaokul d\u00fczeyinde y\u00fczde 43\u2019e, lise d\u00fczeyinde y\u00fczde 58\u2019e ve \u00fcniversite d\u00fczeyinde y\u00fczde 61\u2019e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ancak \u201cHay\u0131r\u201d oyu veren \u00fcniversite mezunu se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 35\u2019i de ba\u015fka \u00fclkelere gitmenin yolunu ar\u0131yor.
\nKad\u0131n se\u00e7mende evet ve hay\u0131r oylar\u0131 y\u00fczde 50-50 b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Ama erkek se\u00e7mende \u201cEvet\u201d \u00f6nde, y\u00fczde 53 ile. Referandumda Erdo\u011fan\u2019a kazand\u0131ran kad\u0131nlardan \u00e7ok erkekler olmu\u015f.
\nBununla birlikte, ilkokul e\u011fitim d\u00fczeyinden sonra \u201cEvet\u201d oylar\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7ok oldu\u011fu kesim, y\u00fczde 65 ile kendisini \u201cEv kad\u0131n\u0131\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlayan kad\u0131nlar. Cevab\u0131n\u0131 \u201ci\u015fsiz\/\u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor\u201d olarak veren kad\u0131nlarda ise \u201cHay\u0131r\u201d oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 58.
\nBa\u015fbakan Binali Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n \u201cHepimize \u00e7\u0131karacak dersler var\u201d dedi\u011fi tablo i\u015fte bu.
\nGelelim, Evet ve Hay\u0131r se\u00e7meninin hangi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclere g\u00f6re oy kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131na.
\nEvet\u00e7iler aras\u0131nda birinci tercih nedeni y\u00fczde 25 ile \u201c\u00dclkenin gelece\u011fi\u201d. \u0130kinci s\u0131rada \u201cCumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Tayyip Erdo\u011fan i\u00e7in\u201d y\u00fczde 21 ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada y\u00fczde 8 ile \u201cY\u00f6netimde istikrar i\u00e7in\u201d cevab\u0131 yer al\u0131yor; di\u011fer cevaplar daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oranlarda.
\nHay\u0131rc\u0131lar aras\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 53 ve a\u00e7\u0131k arayla \u201cBa\u015fkanl\u0131k sistemi\/Tek ki\u015fi y\u00f6netimini desteklemiyorum\u201d cevab\u0131 birinci s\u0131rada. Onu y\u00fczde 10\u2019ar ile \u201c\u00dclkenin gelece\u011fi i\u00e7in\u201d ve \u201cCumhuriyet\/Atat\u00fcrk de\u011ferlerinin korunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in\u201d cevaplar\u0131 izliyor.
\nAncak evet\u00e7ileri de, hay\u0131rc\u0131lar\u0131 da oy tercihlerinde en \u00e7ok etkileyen lider Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan olmu\u015f, ortalamada y\u00fczde 85 ile. BU konuda Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n yan\u0131na yakla\u015fabilen ba\u015fka lider yok.
\n\u201cEvet\u201d oyu kullananlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 91\u2019i, \u201chay\u0131r\u201d oyu kullananlar\u0131n da y\u00fczde 78\u2019i kararlar\u0131nda en etkili olan liderin Erdo\u011fan oldu\u011fu cevab\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015f.
\nAnket \u201cErdo\u011fan a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koymasayd\u0131 \u201cEvet\u201d \u00e7\u0131kmayabilir miydi?\u201d gibi bir soru sormam\u0131\u015f do\u011frusu ama, se\u00e7menin y\u00fczde 53\u2019\u00fc yani \u201cEvet\u201d oylar\u0131na 1,5 puan kadar yak\u0131n k\u0131sm\u0131, kararlar\u0131nda Erdo\u011fan etkisini birinci s\u0131rada Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmalar\u0131na ba\u011flam\u0131\u015f. Evet oylar\u0131nda TV\u2019lerden yay\u0131nlanan reklamlar\u0131n da az\u0131msanmayacak (y\u00fczde 25) bir pay\u0131 var.
\nAma zaten se\u00e7menlerin \u00e7o\u011fu, evet\u00e7ilerin y\u00fczde 86\u2019s\u0131, hay\u0131rc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 88\u2019i zaten ba\u015ftan itibaren kararlar\u0131n\u0131 verdiklerini beyan etmi\u015fler. Yani b\u00fct\u00fcn referandum kampanyas\u0131 as\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 12-14 aras\u0131ndaki karars\u0131zlar\u0131n akl\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7elmek i\u00e7in y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f.
\nPeki, se\u00e7men \u015fimdi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bu sonuca g\u00f6re \u00fclkenin gelece\u011fini nas\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fcyor? Daha iyiye mi, daha k\u00f6t\u00fcye mi gidecek. Burada da ilgin\u00e7 sonu\u00e7lar var.
\n\u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cHay\u0131r\u201d demi\u015f olanlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 14\u2019\u00fc de, daha yenilginin etkisi \u00e7ok s\u0131cak olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n \u201cDaha iyi olacak\u201d cevab\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015f, y\u00fczde 15\u2019i de \u201cAyn\u0131 kalacak\u201d demi\u015f; bu da \u201cHay\u0131rc\u0131lar da umudun t\u00fckenmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Hay\u0131rc\u0131lar i\u00e7inde \u201ck\u00f6t\u00fcye gidecek\u201d diyenlerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 59.
\n\u015eimdi can al\u0131c\u0131 soru: Bu anket referandumun bir g\u00fcn sonras\u0131nda yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, sonu\u00e7lara bakarak oyundan memnun olmayan, 17 Nisan\u2019da yap\u0131lsa oyunu ona g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015ftirmek isteyen var m\u0131? Ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, referandum 16 Nisan sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re 17 Nisan\u2019da yap\u0131lsayd\u0131 sonu\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fir miydi?
\nIPSOS T\u00fcrkiye y\u00f6neticisi Sidar Gedik, \u201cY\u00fczde 90\u2019lar d\u00fczeyinde se\u00e7men oyundan memnundu\u201d diyor, \u201cErtesi g\u00fcn de yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131 benzeri sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u201d kan\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ekleyerek.<\/p>\n
Murat Yetkin<\/p>\n