Israil, Polonya ve Iran de\u011ferlendirmeleri\u2026
\nAncak halim yok, belki ba\u015fka bir f\u0131rsatta anlat\u0131r\u0131m nedenlerini\u2026
\nBuna ra\u011fmen Zeynep Han\u0131m\u0131 okuman\u0131z\u0131 tavsiye ederim!<\/p>\n
— <\/p>\n
Kaygan zemin<\/strong> D\u00fcnya bizim co\u011frafyam\u0131za odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda\u2026 https:\/\/www.sozcu.com.tr\/2019\/yazarlar\/zeynep-gurcanli\/kaygan-zemin-3565762\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Israil, Polonya ve Iran de\u011ferlendirmeleri\u2026 Ancak halim yok, belki ba\u015fka bir f\u0131rsatta anlat\u0131r\u0131m nedenlerini\u2026 Buna ra\u011fmen Zeynep Han\u0131m\u0131 okuman\u0131z\u0131 tavsiye ederim! — Kaygan zemin 18 \u015eubat 2019 D\u00fcnya bizim co\u011frafyam\u0131za odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda\u2026 Ge\u00e7en hafta yap\u0131lan \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli toplant\u0131da, a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a konu\u015fulan konu Suriye ve \u0130ran, \u201cismi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a zikredilmeden\u201d tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan \u00fclke ise T\u00fcrkiye \u00fclke oldu. \u2013 \u0130lk … <\/p>\n
\n18 \u015eubat 2019 <\/p>\n
\nGe\u00e7en hafta yap\u0131lan \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli toplant\u0131da, a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a konu\u015fulan konu Suriye ve \u0130ran, \u201cismi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a zikredilmeden\u201d tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan \u00fclke ise T\u00fcrkiye \u00fclke oldu.
\n\u2013 \u0130lk toplant\u0131, ABD’nin giri\u015fimiyle d\u00fczenlenen, \u0130srail’in ise adeta \u201conur konu\u011fu\u201d yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 Var\u015fova Zirvesi oldu. ABD’nin -ve elbette \u0130srail’in- bu toplant\u0131dan amac\u0131, Suriye’de s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan, siyasi s\u00fcrece yol al\u0131n\u0131lan bug\u00fcnlerde, \u201c\u0130ran kart\u0131n\u0131\u201d a\u00e7makt\u0131.
\nToplant\u0131da ABD’yi Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Mike Pence temsil etti. Trump ailesinden ise damat Kushner ba\u015froldeydi.
\nToplant\u0131da Trump y\u00f6netimi \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 bir yandan Araplar\u0131, di\u011fer yandan ise Avrupal\u0131lar\u0131 yan\u0131na \u00e7ekmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Var\u015fova’da, \u201c\u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 Arap cephesi\u201d i\u015fi tamamland\u0131. Arap \u00fclkeleri, \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Netanyahu ile ayn\u0131 masa etraf\u0131na oturup, birlikte \u0130ran’a -hadi sava\u015fmak demeyelim- m\u00fccadele planlar\u0131 yapmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar bile.
\nAvrupa cephesinde ise pek umdu\u011funu bulamad\u0131 Trump y\u00f6netimi; Var\u015fova’da \u00fcst d\u00fczeyde temsil edilenler, AB i\u00e7inde son d\u00f6nemde ayk\u0131r\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla dikkat \u00e7eken \u00fclkeler oldu. AB’nin Fransa, Almanya gibi as\u0131l unsurlar\u0131, hatta AB Komisyonu’nun kendisi ise Var\u015fova toplant\u0131s\u0131nda olabildi\u011fince \u201cg\u00f6r\u00fcnmez\u201d k\u0131ld\u0131lar kendilerini.
\nVar\u015fova’da hi\u00e7 olmayan \u00fclke ise T\u00fcrkiye idi.
\nDaha da \u00f6tesi, Var\u015fova’da Trump’\u0131n ekibinin \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ccepheyi\u201d olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 saatlerde, T\u00fcrkiye’nin Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, \u0130ran lideri Ruhani ile ayn\u0131 karede poz veriyordu.
\n\u2605\u2605\u2605
\n\u2013 Var\u015fova Zirvesi’yle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen, So\u00e7i’deki T\u00fcrk-Rus-\u0130ran bulu\u015fmas\u0131, Trump’\u0131n kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201c\u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 cephede\u201d Ankara’n\u0131n nerede duraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koydu.
\nPeki Ankara, kaygan Orta Do\u011fu zemininde ABD’ye kar\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hamleye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, So\u00e7i’de istedi\u011fini alabildi mi? Tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131r\u2026
\nSo\u00e7i’de Suriye’nin masaya yat\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 zirve toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye’nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck beklentisi ABD askerlerinin \u00e7ekilmesinin ard\u0131ndan F\u0131rat’\u0131n do\u011fusunda kurulacak tampon b\u00f6lgenin \u201cT\u00fcrk askerinin kontrol\u00fcnde olmas\u0131\u201d i\u00e7in Tahran ve Moskova’n\u0131n deste\u011fini almakt\u0131. Bu olmad\u0131. Aksine, daha \u00f6nce Putin’in \u201cAdana Mutabakat\u0131\u201dn\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirerek, Ankara’ya \u201c\u015eam’daki Esad y\u00f6netimi ile bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n, i\u015f birli\u011fine ge\u00e7in\u201d tavsiyesine, \u0130ran da kat\u0131ld\u0131.
\nHem Putin’in, hem de Ruhani’nin zirve sonunda s\u00fcrekli tekrarlad\u0131klar\u0131 \u201cAdana Mutabakat\u0131\u201d \u0131srar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki diplomatik mesaj a\u00e7\u0131k; \u201cSuriye topraklar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fc Esad y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilsin, Esad, topraklar\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye’ye y\u00f6nelik ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na engel olsun.\u201d
\nBu mesajla \u0130ran ve Rusya, de\u011fil F\u0131rat’\u0131n do\u011fusunda T\u00fcrk kontrol\u00fcndeki bir tampon b\u00f6lgeye ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yakmak, halen T\u00fcrkiye’nin kontrol\u00fcndeki Afrin ve Cerablus-Mare hatt\u0131n\u0131n da Esad’a devredilmesi iste\u011fini de dile getirmi\u015f oldu.
\nZirvede ayr\u0131ca Suriye’nin kuzeydo\u011fusu, yani \u0130dlib de g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc. T\u00fcrkiye, Rusya’dan istedi\u011fi \u201c\u0130dlib’e topyekun bir askeri harekat yap\u0131lmayacak\u201d g\u00fcvencesini alamad\u0131. Tek alabildi\u011fi, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcnen ve T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na yeniden y\u00fcz binlerce s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak bu operasyondan \u00f6nce, \u201cbiraz daha zaman kazanmak\u201d oldu. Kazan\u0131lan bu zamanda T\u00fcrkiye’den beklenti, \u0130dlib’de k\u00fcmelenmi\u015f cihat\u00e7\u0131 ter\u00f6ristleri \u201cbir \u015fekilde\u201d etkisiz hale getirmesi. Ancak son alt\u0131 ayd\u0131r -\u00fc\u00e7 ayda yapar\u0131m dedi\u011fi halde- bunu ba\u015faramayan AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin, kendisine tan\u0131nan bu yeni -ve k\u0131sa- s\u00fcrede b\u00f6lgeyi cihat\u00e7\u0131lardan temizlemesi \u00e7ok zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.
\nK\u0131sacas\u0131, So\u00e7i Zirvesi’nde \u0130ran ve Rusya’n\u0131n, s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmetini \u201ckatil\u201d dedi\u011fi Be\u015far Esad’a \u201cmahkum etti\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6ylemek herhalde yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz.
\n\u2605\u2605\u2605
\n\u2013 Haftan\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kritik toplant\u0131s\u0131, ABD’yi yine Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Pence’in temsil etti\u011fi, her y\u0131l kritik stratejik d\u00fcnya meselelerinin masaya yat\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 M\u00fcnih Konferans\u0131 idi. M\u00fcnih’te \u0130ran ve Suriye’nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u201cad\u0131 pek zikredilmeden\u201d konu\u015fulan konu T\u00fcrkiye oldu.
\nMesela:
\nPence’in \u201cNATO m\u00fcttefikleri Do\u011fu’dan silah al\u0131rken, ABD buna seyirci kalamaz\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fc adrese teslim AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmetine y\u00f6nelikti. Pence’in bu diplomatik c\u00fcmlesinde \u201cdo\u011fu\u201d derken Rusya’y\u0131, \u201cNATO m\u00fcttefiki\u201d derken T\u00fcrkiye’yi, \u201csilah\u201d derken ise S-400’leri kastetti\u011fi \u201cherkesin bildi\u011fi s\u0131r\u201d olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7ti.
\nM\u00fcnih Konferans\u0131’nda \u201cT\u00fcrkiye odakl\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fma\u201d sadece bununla da kalmad\u0131.
\nCumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n ge\u00e7en ay Saray’da alay-\u0131 vala ile a\u011f\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131, birlikte Faz\u0131l Say konserine gitti\u011fi Amerikal\u0131 Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Senat\u00f6r Lindsey Graham, baklay\u0131 a\u011fz\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131:
\nGraham, ABD’nin Avrupal\u0131 NATO ortaklar\u0131na, F\u0131rat’\u0131n do\u011fusunda kurulacak tampon b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in \u201casker g\u00f6ndermeleri\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. Bununla da kalmad\u0131; Avrupal\u0131 askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilecek olan bu tampon b\u00f6lgenin amac\u0131n\u0131n da PKK ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn Suriye uzant\u0131s\u0131 olan PYD-YPG’nin, \u201cT\u00fcrk Ordusu’nun sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131ndan korunmas\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131verdi.
\nAKP h\u00fck\u00fcmeti h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201ctampon b\u00f6lge T\u00fcrk Ordusu kontrol\u00fcnde olmal\u0131\u201d ya da \u201c\u00c7eki\u00e7 G\u00fc\u00e7 benzeri yap\u0131ya izin vermeyiz\u201d demeye devam ederken, ABD Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dunford da Avrupal\u0131 muhataplar\u0131ndan \u201ctampon b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in asker istedi\u201d hafta boyunca yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Avrupa temaslar\u0131nda.
\n\u2605\u2605\u2605
\nT\u00fcm bu \u00fc\u00e7 zirvenin ortaya koydu\u011fu ise AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin bug\u00fcne kadar izledi\u011fi yanl\u0131\u015f d\u0131\u015f politika nedeniyle, T\u00fcrkiye’nin iyice s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131.
\nPapaz Brunson’\u0131n -h\u00e2l\u00e2 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan bir hukuki kararla- sal\u0131verilmesi ile AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Ankara-Washington hatt\u0131nda olu\u015fturulmak istedi\u011fi yak\u0131nla\u015fma zora girmi\u015f durumda. Trump y\u00f6netimi bir yandan \u0130ran konusunda bast\u0131r\u0131rken, di\u011fer yandan Rusya’dan S-400 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrekli gerilim unsuru yapmaya devam ediyor. \u00dcstelik buna \u015fimdi bir de T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u201cyeni \u00c7eki\u00e7 G\u00fc\u00e7\u201d anlam\u0131na gelecek, T\u00fcrkiye d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda her t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00fclkenin askerinin yer alaca\u011f\u0131, do\u011frudan \u201cT\u00fcrkiye’ye kar\u015f\u0131\u201d kurulacak tampon b\u00f6lge eklendi.
\nWashington’un bask\u0131s\u0131ndan bunalan AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin, can havliyle yak\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 Rusya ve \u0130ran’dan ise beklenen destek yok. Aksine bu iki \u00fclke, AKP’yi s\u00fcrekli \u201ckatil\u201d dedi\u011fi Esad y\u00f6netimi ile bar\u0131\u015fmaya zorlamakla me\u015fgul.
\nZemin kaygan, \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu da pek g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor\u2026<\/p>\n