{"id":10255,"date":"2018-06-11T04:20:44","date_gmt":"2018-06-11T04:20:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/?p=10255"},"modified":"2018-06-11T04:26:50","modified_gmt":"2018-06-11T04:26:50","slug":"banken-analyse-zum-wahlausgang-tuerkei","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/?p=10255","title":{"rendered":"Banken analyse zum wahlausgang t\u00fcrkei"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>https:\/\/www.sydbank.de\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/sydbankde\/e7616285-76dc-4b0f-9d86-1295d7127331\/T\u00fcrkei.pdf?MOD=AJPERES<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.hsh-nordbank.de\/media\/pdf_3\/marktberichte\/kapitalmarktberichte\/fokusthemen\/fokus_tuerkei_12-04-17.pdf?lang=de&#038;fsId=10439682<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>http:\/\/www.tuerkei-recht.de\/downloads\/Tuerkei-aktuelle_Situation.pdf<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.bddk.org.tr\/WebSitesi\/turkce\/Raporlar\/Kitaplar\/9971bddkkitap_10.pdf<\/p>\n<p>http:\/\/dergipark.gov.tr\/download\/article-file\/166359<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>The Economist\u2019in 24 Haziran analizi: Adil olmayacak<br \/>\nHaber Merkezi 27\/04\/2018<br \/>\nHaftal\u0131k \u0130ngiliz dergisi The Economist dergisi son say\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki siyasi geli\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendirdi.<br \/>\n\u201cErken se\u00e7im adil olmayacak\u201d diyen dergi, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck altyap\u0131 projelerini oya \u00e7evirmek istedi\u011fini yazd\u0131.<br \/>\nBBC T\u00fcrk\u00e7e\u2019nin aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re Economist\u2019teki makale, \u0130stanbul\u2019da 29 Ekim\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan ve 35 bin ki\u015finin \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni havaliman\u0131n\u0131n maliyetinin 12,5 milyar dolar oldu\u011funun hat\u0131rlat\u0131lmas\u0131yla ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<br \/>\nDev tesis, 5 sene i\u00e7inde y\u0131lda 150 milyon yolcu kapasitesiyle d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck havaliman\u0131 olacak.<br \/>\nEconomist, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n, 45 kilometre uzunlu\u011funda olacak Kanal \u0130stanbul projesinin temelini de bu y\u0131l atmak istedi\u011fini aktar\u0131yor okurlar\u0131na.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cKimse adil olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyor\u201d<br \/>\nDergiye g\u00f6re bug\u00fcne dek T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin mega projeleri hem istihdam ve gelir kayna\u011f\u0131, hem ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru, hem de bol oy kayna\u011f\u0131 oldu.<br \/>\nErdo\u011fan da iktidarlar\u0131 d\u00f6neminde \u00e7ok say\u0131da otoyol ve t\u00fcnelin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra 29 havaliman\u0131 in\u015fa etmeleriyle de \u00f6v\u00fcnd\u00fc.<br \/>\nEconomist\u2019teki yaz\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle devam ediyor:<br \/>\n\u201cSay\u0131n Erdo\u011fan yak\u0131nda t\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 yeniden yapabilmek i\u00e7in yeni bir \u015fansa sahip olacak. 18 Nisan\u2019da milletvekillerinin ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc hali yine 3 ay uzatmas\u0131ndan birka\u00e7 saat \u00f6nce erken se\u00e7im karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imi ile genel se\u00e7im daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan tarihten yakla\u015f\u0131k 18 ay \u00f6nce, 24 Haziran\u2019da yap\u0131lacak.<br \/>\n\u201cOHAL yetkileri ile donat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, neredeyse t\u00fcm medya organlar\u0131n\u0131 ve devlet kurumlar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol eden Say\u0131n Erdo\u011fan, muhafazak\u00e2r se\u00e7menler nezdinde hala pop\u00fcler. Kimsenin adil olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemedi\u011fi yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 da kolayca kazanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u201d<br \/>\nYaz\u0131da daha sonra, 20 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce 225 metre uzunlu\u011fundaki bir tankerin Hekimba\u015f\u0131 Salih Efendi Yal\u0131s\u0131\u2019na \u00e7arpmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n yeniden Kanal \u0130stanbul projesinin \u00f6nemini vurgulamas\u0131na de\u011finiliyor.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrk M\u00fchendis ve Mimar Odalar\u0131 Birli\u011fi \u015eehir Planc\u0131lar\u0131 Odas\u0131 \u0130stanbul \u015eube Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Tayfun Kahraman ise yeni havaliman\u0131 ve Kanal \u0130stanbul Projesi kapsam\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir alan\u0131n imara a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fehrin kalan su kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ve ormanlar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit edece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<br \/>\n\u201c\u0130stanbul\u2019dan daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olan tek kent Dubai\u201d<br \/>\nD\u00fcnya \u015eehirleri K\u00fclt\u00fcr Forumu\u2019na g\u00f6re \u0130stanbul\u2019da park ve bah\u00e7elerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 2. Ayn\u0131 oran \u00f6rne\u011fin Londra\u2019da y\u00fczde 33 ve s\u0131ralanan 34 kent aras\u0131nda bu kategoride \u0130stanbul\u2019dan daha k\u00f6t\u00fc durumdaki tek kent, Dubai.<br \/>\nYaz\u0131dan di\u011fer baz\u0131 sat\u0131rlar \u015f\u00f6yle: \u201cT\u00fcrkiye \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 5 y\u0131lda altyap\u0131 projelerine 325 milyar dolar yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor. Ancak zamanla ger\u00e7ekler a\u011f\u0131r basabilir. 2017\u2019de te\u015fvik paketleri ve ucuz kredinin de sayesinde y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomi sert \u015fekilde ini\u015fe ge\u00e7ebilir. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana olduk\u00e7a h\u0131rpaland\u0131, 2013\u2019ten bu yana ise Euro ve Amerikan Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 100\u2019den fazla de\u011fer kaybetti.<br \/>\n\u201cD\u00f6vizle bor\u00e7lanan \u015firketler ac\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck gruplar\u0131ndan Y\u0131ld\u0131z Holding ve Do\u011fu\u015f Holding\u2019in yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 milyar dolarl\u0131k bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmak i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildiriliyor\u2026.\u015eirketlerin borcu, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131las\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 70\u2019ine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda.<br \/>\n\u201cSay\u0131n Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n erken se\u00e7im karar\u0131 almas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel bir nedeni de, bu sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n hissedilmesini se\u00e7im sonras\u0131na b\u0131rakmak istemesi.\u201d<br \/>\n\u201cEkonomi birinci turu engelleyebilir\u201d<br \/>\nEconomist\u2019teki yaz\u0131dan baz\u0131 uzman g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri \u015f\u00f6yle:<br \/>\n\u201cE\u011fer Y\u0131ld\u0131z Holding ve Do\u011fu\u015f Holding gibi \u015firketler bu problemlerle y\u00fczle\u015fmi\u015fse, di\u011ferlerinin y\u00fczle\u015fmemeleri s\u00fcrpriz olur.\u201d (\u0130nan Demir, Nomura International adl\u0131 bankan\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalar ekonomisti)<br \/>\n\u201cEkonomideki zor durumda y\u00f6nelik en ufak bir i\u015faret, Say\u0131n Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7imi hedefledi\u011fi gibi birinci turda kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 tehlikeye atabilir.\u201d (Sinan \u00dclgen, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu Carnegie Europe\u2019da g\u00f6revli akademisyen)<br \/>\n\u201cKanal \u0130stanbul, uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan (1936 Montr\u00f6 Bo\u011fazlar S\u00f6zle\u015fmesi nedeniyle) \u00f6ylesine endi\u015fe ve kabus dolu bir proje ki, yabanc\u0131 bankalar ona dokunmakta teredd\u00fct edebilir.\u201d (Refet G\u00fcrkaynak, Bilkent \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nde ekonomist)<br \/>\n\u201c\u0130n\u015faat projeleri k\u00e2r etmezse faturay\u0131 halk \u00f6deyecek\u201d<br \/>\nYaz\u0131, \u015fu sat\u0131rlarla noktalan\u0131yor:<br \/>\n\u201cH\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7in bunu \u00f6nlemenin bir yolu in\u015faat \u015firketlerinin ald\u0131klar\u0131 kredilere kefil olmak, ki yeni havaalan\u0131nda da bu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme ba\u015fvuruldu. Uluslararas\u0131 bankalar \u00e7ekilince, finansman\u0131 T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<br \/>\n\u201cAncak ekonomist Refet G\u00fcrkaynak burada net bir riskten s\u00f6z ediyor. O da bu projeler k\u00e2r etmezse, faturay\u0131 vergi m\u00fckelleflerinin \u00f6demesi. Bu da se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in iyi bir i\u015faret olmayabilir.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"rOJ61YVVua\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/yesilgazete.org\/blog\/2018\/04\/27\/the-economistin-24-haziran-analizi-adil-olmayacak\/\">The Economist&#8217;in 24 Haziran analizi: Adil olmayacak<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" src=\"https:\/\/yesilgazete.org\/blog\/2018\/04\/27\/the-economistin-24-haziran-analizi-adil-olmayacak\/embed\/#?secret=rOJ61YVVua\" data-secret=\"rOJ61YVVua\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" title=\"&#8220;The Economist&#8217;in 24 Haziran analizi: Adil olmayacak&#8221; &#8212; Ye\u015fil Gazete\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs ve JP Morgan&#8217;dan erken se\u00e7im de\u011ferlendirmesi<br \/>\n\u00a9 REUTERS \/ Mike Segar<br \/>\nEkonomi<br \/>\n11:01 19.04.2018URL&#8217;yi k\u0131salt\u0131n<br \/>\n0 13<br \/>\nD\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 Goldman Sachs ve JP Morgan, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de 24 Haziran&#8217;da erken genel se\u00e7ime gidilmesi karar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi. Goldman Sachs, &#8222;Erken se\u00e7imler AKP&#8217;nin zafer elde etme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131&#8220; derken, JP Morgan Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a9 AA \/ Recep \u00c7elik<br \/>\nErken se\u00e7im i\u00e7in i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ne dedi?<br \/>\nGoldman Sachs, se\u00e7imin zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131n muhalefetin siyasi olarak organize olma kabiliyetini azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu vurgulayarak, &#8222;Beklenenden erken se\u00e7imler AKP&#8217;nin zafer elde etme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131&#8220; de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>Se\u00e7imin zamanlamas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe piyasan\u0131n pozitif reaksiyon verdi\u011fine i\u015faret eden Goldman Sachs, bunda se\u00e7imden sonra siyasi ortam\u0131n iyile\u015fece\u011fi beklentisinin ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n siyasi devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 tercih etmelerinin rol oynam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<br \/>\nAncak Goldman Sachs, &#8222;Piyasadaki bu iyile\u015fmeye ra\u011fmen, bizim T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimiz de\u011fi\u015fmedi&#8220; ifadelerine de raporunda yer verdi.<br \/>\n&#8218;MAL\u0130 GEV\u015eEME R\u0130SK\u0130N\u0130 AZALTTI&#8216;<\/p>\n<p>\u00a9 REUTERS \/ Murad Sezer<br \/>\nErken se\u00e7ime piyasan\u0131n ilk tepkisi: Dolar geriledi, borsa y\u00fckseldi<br \/>\nJP Morgan da de\u011ferlendirmesinde, al\u0131nan erken se\u00e7im karar\u0131n\u0131n mali gev\u015feme riskini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131n TCMB&#8217;nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n<p>Erken se\u00e7im karar\u0131n\u0131n piyasa dostu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini ifade eden JP Morgan, buna \u00fc\u00e7 temel neden g\u00f6sterdi. Erken se\u00e7imin 24 Haziran&#8217;da yap\u0131lmas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n siyasi belirsizlik s\u00fcrecini k\u0131sa tutacak olmas\u0131n\u0131n ilk olumlu fakt\u00f6r oldu\u011funu ifade eden JP Morgan, ikinci pozitif fakt\u00f6r olarak mali gev\u015feme riskinde keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi.<br \/>\nJP Morgan, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc fakt\u00f6r olarak TCMB&#8217;nin faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret etti ve y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda 100 baz puan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklediklerini vurgulad\u0131.<br \/>\nJP Morgan, TCMB&#8217;nin 25 Nisan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizini 50 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini de duyurdu.<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/tr.sputniknews.com\/ekonomi\/201804191033095137-goldman-sachs-jp-morgan-erken-secim\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>https:\/\/www.sydbank.de\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/sydbankde\/e7616285-76dc-4b0f-9d86-1295d7127331\/T\u00fcrkei.pdf?MOD=AJPERES https:\/\/www.hsh-nordbank.de\/media\/pdf_3\/marktberichte\/kapitalmarktberichte\/fokusthemen\/fokus_tuerkei_12-04-17.pdf?lang=de&#038;fsId=10439682 &#8212; http:\/\/www.tuerkei-recht.de\/downloads\/Tuerkei-aktuelle_Situation.pdf &#8212; https:\/\/www.bddk.org.tr\/WebSitesi\/turkce\/Raporlar\/Kitaplar\/9971bddkkitap_10.pdf http:\/\/dergipark.gov.tr\/download\/article-file\/166359 &#8212; The Economist\u2019in 24 Haziran analizi: Adil olmayacak Haber Merkezi 27\/04\/2018 Haftal\u0131k \u0130ngiliz dergisi The Economist dergisi son say\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki siyasi geli\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendirdi. \u201cErken se\u00e7im adil olmayacak\u201d diyen dergi, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck altyap\u0131 projelerini oya \u00e7evirmek istedi\u011fini yazd\u0131. BBC T\u00fcrk\u00e7e\u2019nin aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re Economist\u2019teki makale, \u0130stanbul\u2019da 29 &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/?p=10255\" class=\"more-link\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201eBanken analyse zum wahlausgang t\u00fcrkei\u201c<\/span> weiterlesen<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10255"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10255"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10255\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10259,"href":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10255\/revisions\/10259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/wordpress.gurbuz.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}